Why does your head hurt when the weather changes? What the research actually shows

Your head feels heavy this morning, you have no energy, and there seems to be no reason for it. You look out of the window, the sky is clouding over, and the thought comes by itself: it's the weather. Sound familiar?

You are not alone. But is the weather really to blame? We looked through twenty years of research, and the answer turned out to be more interesting than a simple yes or no.

How many people feel the weather change?

A lot. When 1,064 people representing the population of Germany were surveyed, 19% said the weather strongly affects their health, and another 35% said it does to some extent. Among people over 60, the figure was 68%. Their most common complaint was headache or migraine (61%), followed by lethargy, poor sleep and tiredness.

This is what people feel, not a diagnosis: weather sensitivity is not listed in the ICD-11 or DSM-5 classifications. A survey does not prove that the weather is the cause. Headaches themselves are also very common: according to the WHO, headache disorders affect about 40% of people worldwide, or 3.1 billion. So on days when the weather changes, many people will have a headache simply because headaches are frequent.

Does a drop in barometric pressure really cause headaches?

Most of the research is about migraine, so that is mainly what we discuss here. These findings cannot always be applied to other kinds of headache.

The case for. A 2025 meta-analysis brought together 31 studies. Temperature and atmospheric pressure were linked to migraine attacks. For pressure, the odds of an attack were about 7% higher. There is a link, but it is modest, and it does not yet prove a cause. No significant link was found for humidity. Cleveland Clinic names changes in the weather among possible migraine triggers, while the NHS page on migraine does not mention weather among them.

A Japanese study from 2023 analysed almost 337,000 headache records from 4,375 users of a diary app. Headaches were recorded more often with low pressure, falling pressure, high humidity and rain. A newer paper by the same authors, with 10,248 users, also finds links, although it describes them as generally modest. One caveat: these are records people made in an app, not attacks confirmed by a doctor, and people who already suspect the weather may be more likely to use such an app.

The case against. In a study in Vienna, 238 people with migraine kept a diary for 90 days. After statistical correction no link held up, and the authors called the influence of weather "small and questionable". In Ottawa, researchers checked 4,039 hospital visits for migraine and found little link to the weather over the previous 24 hours.

Why would pressure affect your head at all? Nobody knows for sure yet. A 2024 review lists a reaction of the nervous system and the inner ear among possible explanations, but the mechanism remains unclear. The authors also note that the combination of weather with other factors seems to be a stronger trigger. For example, a bad night and a pressure change together may matter more than either one alone, although that example is ours, not from a study.

Why do the studies contradict each other?

The best explanation comes from a study in Berlin. A hundred people with migraine recorded their attacks every four hours for a whole year. Taken all together, they showed no link with the weather. But looked at one by one, 13 of the 100 showed a clear link. The authors think the true number may be higher.

And one more interesting detail: for some people attacks coincided with falling pressure, for others with rising pressure. Averages can hide individual stories. If the weather does affect you, that does not contradict a study that "found nothing".

And what about our own impressions? One study compared the headache calendars of 77 people with migraine against weather service data. 62% considered themselves sensitive to weather, and the data showed 51% were. So people are often right, but not always. Memory holds on to the bad day that came with a storm and easily forgets the storms that passed quietly.

Can you predict a headache from the weather forecast?

There is no reliable way yet. The same Berlin researchers tried to predict attacks from weather data, even in sensitive people, and it did not work. So a pressure forecast will not tell you "you will have a headache tomorrow". It can tell you something else: "the pressure will change sharply tomorrow". Then it is up to you whether to move something important or go to bed earlier.

What counts as a sharp pressure drop?

There is no generally accepted medical threshold. Normal pressure at sea level is about 1013 hPa, or 29.92 inHg. In a Japanese study, 28 people kept a diary for a year, and attacks became more frequent when pressure fell by more than 5 hPa from one day to the next. But that is a small group, not a rule for everyone.

What to do if the weather gives you headaches

You can't change the weather, but you can change the rest. The WHO and the UK's NHS give much the same advice, and it is useful whatever the pressure is doing:

• go to bed and get up at about the same time;
• drink water during the day;
• don't skip meals;
• limit alcohol;
• move regularly;
• take breaks from screens and try to reduce stress.

Be careful with painkillers. The NHS lists taking too many of them among the common causes of headaches, and the WHO describes a separate condition, medication-overuse headache. If you need them often, that is a reason to talk to a doctor, not to take more on your own.

How to find out whether the weather affects you

Keep a diary. Both the WHO and the NHS recommend it, because it shows your own triggers rather than average figures.

1. Write it down every day, even on good days: how you feel, the pressure, sleep, food.
2. Give it time. One week tells you almost nothing. You need at least a few weeks and a few changes in the weather.
3. Count both sides. How many bad days came with a pressure drop? And how many drops passed without pain? Both numbers matter.
4. Look at everything else too. If your bad days followed short sleep or a skipped lunch, it may not be the weather.

More detail, with a sample table: how to keep a weather and wellbeing diary. Your notes will also help at a doctor's appointment.

When to get medical help straight away

Most headaches go away on their own. But don't put everything down to the weather. According to the NHS, call an ambulance (or your local emergency number) if a headache:

• came on suddenly and is extremely painful;
• comes with weakness or numbness in the body or face;
• comes with difficulty speaking, balancing, walking or remembering, or with drowsiness or confusion;
• comes with loss of vision or a seizure;
• appeared within three months of a head injury;
• comes with a very high temperature, a stiff neck, sensitivity to bright light or a rash that doesn't fade when you press a glass on it.

Don't put off seeing a doctor either if headaches keep coming back, get worse, come with vomiting or problems with your vision, or get worse when you cough or bend over.

Where Calmsky comes in

Calmsky is ours, so we will say that plainly. It is an iPhone app that shows the atmospheric pressure and its forecast 48 hours ahead, and warns you 3 hours before a sharp change. When you feel unwell, one tap in the diary is enough: the app saves the pressure of that moment next to your note. That makes it easier to collect notes and take an honest look at whether there is a link for you.

Calmsky does not treat or prevent headaches and does not predict attacks. It is not a medical device. It only helps you see the pressure and keep notes. Any conclusions about your health are for you and your doctor.

Sources

1. Li S. et al. Association between weather conditions and migraine: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Journal of Neurology, 2025.
2. Hoffmann J. et al. The influence of weather on migraine — are migraine attacks predictable? Annals of Clinical and Translational Neurology, 2015.
3. Katsuki M. et al. Investigating the effects of weather on headache occurrence using a smartphone application and artificial intelligence. Headache, 2023.
4. Katsuki M. et al. Weather factors associated with recorded headache events in smartphone headache diary data. The Journal of Headache and Pain, 2026.
5. Zebenholzer K. et al. Migraine and weather: a prospective diary-based analysis. Cephalalgia, 2011.
6. Villeneuve P. J. et al. Weather and emergency room visits for migraine headaches in Ottawa, Canada. Headache, 2006.
7. Prince P. B. et al. The effect of weather on headache. Headache, 2004.
8. Kimoto K. et al. Influence of barometric pressure in patients with migraine headache. Internal Medicine, 2011.
9. Denney D. E. et al. Whether weather matters with migraine. Current Pain and Headache Reports, 2024.
10. Höppe P. et al. Prevalence of weather sensitivity in Germany (in German). Deutsche Medizinische Wochenschrift, 2002.
11. Konieczny K. et al. Polish Adaptation and Psychometric Validation of the METEO-Q. Journal of Clinical Medicine, 2026.
12. Cleveland Clinic. Migraine Headaches, 2024.
13. WHO. Headache disorders, 2025.
14. NHS. Headaches; Migraine.

This article explains research and does not replace advice from a doctor. Reviewed on 3 November 2026.